Group 1 - Standard Chartered's economist for Greater China, Chen Guanlin, expects HIBOR to closely reflect the trends of SOFR, with a forecast of 3-month HIBOR fluctuating around 3% in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 3.5% [1] - The bank anticipates that the U.S. economy will see accelerated growth due to AI-related investments, which may lead to an increase in inflation, thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's capacity for rate cuts in 2026 [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market by buying HKD and selling USD, resulting in a reduction of the banking system's aggregate balance from HKD 173.4 billion at the end of May to HKD 54.1 billion by the end of August [1] Group 2 - Standard Chartered indicates that due to a slowdown in capital inflows to the stock market and the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market, there is limited room for further depreciation of the USD/HKD exchange rate in early 2026 [2] - The bank notes that seasonal factors towards the end of the year and index adjustments may lead to a slight tightening of HKD liquidity [2] - Ongoing debt swap activities may exert further appreciation pressure on HKD cross-currency swaps [2]
渣打：料美联储年内不再减息 预计香港3个月HIBOR将在3%附近波动