逆势不涨价，但格力不从容

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning industry is shifting from incremental expansion to optimizing existing stock, driven by rising copper prices and intense price competition, pushing companies to make strategic choices [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The air conditioning market is experiencing a transition where the demand for replacement units is expected to exceed 60% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a stock replacement model [1] - The cost of copper, which constitutes 15%-20% of air conditioning costs, has surged, with prices expected to exceed 90,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 35% [1] - The copper-to-aluminum price ratio has reached 3.9:1, prompting companies to consider alternatives like aluminum to reduce costs, although this option is not yet mature for widespread adoption [4][6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The air conditioning market is witnessing a bifurcation, with online sales growing by 9.48% and 11.41% in revenue and volume respectively, while offline sales are declining by 10.25% and 8.14% [6] - The average price of online air conditioners has decreased by 1.73% to 2,688 yuan, while offline prices have dropped by 3.05% to 4,174 yuan, indicating a general trend of price reduction across channels [6] - Major brands are under pressure to maintain market share amidst rising competition, leading to aggressive pricing strategies, particularly in the second half of 2025 [7] Group 3: Company Performance - Gree Electric's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 137.18 billion yuan, a decline of 6.5% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 2.3% to 21.46 billion yuan [9] - The company has faced challenges from increasing market demand for cost-effective products while needing to maintain high profit margins, resulting in a decrease in market share [9][10] - Competitors are leveraging digital transformation and price competitiveness to gain market share, with some internet brands achieving rapid sales growth through extended warranties and new factory production [10]