Core Viewpoint - The global market is entering a new round of asset allocation competition in 2026, with a focus on broader asset diversification to address uncertainties, following a rare bull market in 2025 where major global indices recorded positive returns, particularly in China and precious metals [2] Macro Environment - The global economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery in 2026, with the U.S. economy likely avoiding a hard landing, characterized by a "weaker appearance but supported by policy" [3] - The Federal Reserve may have room for three more interest rate cuts, contributing to a more accommodative monetary policy that supports risk assets [3] - Enhanced coordination of fiscal and monetary policies among major economies is anticipated, with flexibility in policy direction following previous tightening [3] - Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, remain unresolved, potentially shifting focus to Latin American countries [3] Asset Allocation - Standard Chartered recommends overweighting equities in the core investment portfolio while maintaining core positions in bonds, as the environment for risk assets is favorable but performance disparities will widen [4] - The U.S. and Asian markets (excluding Japan) are favored for equities, with particular emphasis on the resilience of U.S. stocks due to corporate earnings growth and easing geopolitical risks [4] - India is upgraded to overweight due to improved earnings and strong economic growth, while China is also favored, especially in technology, healthcare, and communications sectors [4] Sector Insights - European (excluding the UK) and Japanese stocks are downgraded to underweight, while technology stocks remain a focal point, shifting the investment logic from long-term narratives to current earnings certainty [5] - In the bond market, government bonds are recommended as a core stabilizer, with a preference for emerging market government bonds benefiting from moderate inflation and dovish monetary policy [5] Currency and Commodities - The dollar is expected to face pressure, with a decline in its structural advantages, while gold is maintained as a core hedging tool, with a mid-term target price of $4,350 per ounce in three months and $4,800 per ounce in twelve months [6] - Gold is viewed as a long-term asset rather than a short-term trading tool, while the oil market is constrained by supply-demand fundamentals, limiting price increases despite geopolitical volatility [6]
财富观 | 外资展望2026年全球市场：风险资产有望跑赢大市