市值蒸发 1300 亿，“疫苗龙头”缘何急速坠落？

Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is experiencing a significant downturn as the initial excitement and capital influx driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and domestic innovation fade away, leading to increased competition and challenges for vaccine companies [1][3]. Company Overview - Watson Bio, a leading vaccine company, is seeking a 670 million yuan loan from Yunnan Hongta Bank, pledging 166 million shares of its core subsidiary as collateral, indicating a desperate need for financial support amid multiple pressures [4][5]. - The company, once celebrated for its 13-valent pneumonia and HPV vaccines, is now facing declining stock prices, slowing growth, and regulatory penalties due to governance issues [5][22]. Historical Context - Watson Bio was founded in 2001 and initially gained traction by distributing hepatitis vaccines before shifting focus to self-developed products around 2005 [7][8]. - The company went public in 2010 and expanded its product line through acquisitions, benefiting from a favorable market environment and capital enthusiasm for biopharmaceuticals [8]. - A pivotal moment came in early 2020 when Watson's 13-valent pneumonia vaccine was approved, breaking a monopoly and establishing the company as a market leader [9][12][13]. Recent Performance - In 2023, Watson's revenue dropped to approximately 4.114 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.12% year-on-year, with net profit falling by 42.44% [23]. - The company's revenue continued to decline in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total of 1.719 billion yuan, down 19.73% year-on-year, and a significant drop in third-quarter revenue [23][30]. Market Challenges - Watson is facing intense competition and a price war, particularly in the HPV vaccine sector, where prices have plummeted from around 329 yuan to below 30 yuan in some government procurement projects, leading to a severe erosion of profit margins [26][27]. - The company’s product pipeline is weak, with its next-generation nine-valent HPV vaccine lagging behind competitors, which have already received approval and are gaining market share [29][30]. Internal Issues - Governance problems have emerged, with regulatory bodies issuing corrective measures due to violations in executive compensation procedures, highlighting internal management issues [32][34]. - The company has seen significant insider selling, with key executives, including the founder, reducing their stakes dramatically, which has raised concerns among investors about the company's stability [35][36]. Financial Health - Watson's cash flow situation is precarious, with a net cash flow from operating activities dropping by 85.75% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a near depletion of its financial resources [39]. - The company has also significantly reduced its R&D investment, with a 48.53% decrease in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, raising concerns about its long-term growth potential [39][40].