ADP止跌职位空缺却下滑，非农将如何影响美联储降息预期

Group 1 - The core economic data released this week indicates a partial recovery in the U.S. job market at the end of last year, but it has not fully overcome challenges. The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures pricing suggests the first rate cut could occur in the second quarter if the non-farm payroll data falls short of market expectations [1] - In December 2025, U.S. companies added 41,000 jobs, which is below the expected 48,000, indicating a weak labor market. Employee wage growth has also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, matching the lowest level since the pandemic [2] - Job growth is concentrated in a few sectors, primarily healthcare, hospitality, and restaurants, highlighting the weakness of the labor market over the past year. The current labor market is characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, with no clear signs of a significant rebound in hiring [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department's JOLTS report shows a decline in job vacancies and hiring in November, with job openings dropping from nearly 7.5 million to about 7.1 million, and the hiring rate decreasing from 3.4% to 3.2% [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, set to be released on January 9, is expected to be a key driver for market direction. In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years [5] - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook for 2026 is generally optimistic, predicting accelerated economic growth and a stable unemployment rate, although concerns remain about the labor market's cooling [6] Group 3 - There are significant risks in the market, as inflation improvement has stalled and the labor market shows signs of weakness. The slowing job growth and declining wage pressure indicate a challenging economic environment [7] - The current labor market is not in an ideal state of equilibrium, and the "low hiring, low layoffs" model may not be sustainable. If consumer spending decreases, it could lead to a wave of layoffs [7] - The weakening labor market provides a rationale for the Federal Reserve to adjust its rate cut expectations, and if the non-farm report is too weak, it may signal more severe economic risks than currently anticipated [7]