Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4, raising non-IFRS profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 by 2-3% and slightly increasing the target price to HKD 12.8, reaffirming it as the industry favorite for 2026 with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Q4 Performance - J&T Express recorded strong parcel volume growth in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] - Southeast Asia's average daily parcel volume reached 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while new market parcel volume grew by 79.7% to 1.45 million daily, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 2: Market Growth Drivers - Strong growth in the Southeast Asian market is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and ongoing capacity expansion, including the addition of 1,000 service points and three new automated sorting systems [1] - This expansion is expected to support a target of 5-10% annual unit cost reduction [1] - Brazil is identified as a key growth driver in emerging markets, while Mexico's parcel volume remains positive despite tariff impacts [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Despite an overall slowdown in the Chinese market, J&T Express maintained profitability by focusing on high-value business and reverse logistics [2] - Core clients such as Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok continue to drive order growth, with Mercado Libre's expanding demand injecting new momentum into new markets [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, Bank of America forecasts parcel volume growth of 43% in Southeast Asia and 49% in new markets [2]
美银证券：上调极兔速递-W目标价至12.8港元 重申其为2026年的行业首选 评级“买入”