成品油出口高利润叠加硫磺涨价 荣盛石化双重受益锁定高业绩弹性

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce has issued the first batch of refined oil export quotas for 2026, totaling 19 million tons, which is the same as the amount for the same period in 2025 [1] - State-owned enterprises dominate the export quotas, with Sinopec and PetroChina together receiving 13.76 million tons, accounting for 72.4% of the total quota [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical is currently the only private refining enterprise in China with refined oil export qualifications, with its subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical receiving an export quota of 1.56 million tons [1] Group 2 - In the second half of 2025, overseas refined oil crack spreads significantly increased, with gasoline crack spreads in Europe and Singapore reaching five-year highs due to various factors, including reduced Russian oil processing and U.S. refinery shutdowns [2] - The crack spreads for gasoline in November reached $27, $17, and $25 per barrel in Europe, Singapore, and the U.S., respectively, showing increases of 286%, 125%, and 92% compared to the beginning of the year [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a net increase of 1.15 million barrels per day in global refining capacity in 2026, primarily driven by China and India [2] Group 3 - High overseas refined oil crack spreads provide a profitable export window for Chinese refined oil, benefiting companies with export qualifications, particularly Rongsheng Petrochemical [3] - Zhejiang Petrochemical, as a core asset of Rongsheng Petrochemical, has an integrated refining capacity of 40 million tons per year, making it the largest single refinery globally [4] - The company has maintained a stable export quota of around 3.5 million tons per year, allowing for flexible export arrangements based on market conditions [4] Group 4 - The sulfur price has been rising steadily, contributing to profit growth for Rongsheng Petrochemical, with the company holding a design capacity of 1.21 million tons for sulfur [5] - As of December 23, 2025, liquid sulfur prices in East China reached 3,610 yuan per ton, and solid sulfur prices reached 3,815 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 127% and 141% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of 3.4 billion yuan from sulfur sales, significantly enhancing its overall profitability [5]