HKEX(HK:00388) Ge Long Hui·2026-01-08 21:27Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is currently experiencing a technical analysis phase with support levels at 415 HKD and 405 HKD, and resistance levels at 438 HKD and 456 HKD, indicating a potential upward movement probability of 52% [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The recent performance of HKEX shows a relatively strong trend compared to the Hang Seng Index, with the stock price stabilizing around 430 HKD, above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands [3]. - The short-term resistance level is identified at approximately 438 HKD, and if this level is breached, there is potential for the stock to rise to 440 HKD [3]. - Current technical signals indicate a predominance of "sell" signals, with 11 sell signals compared to 6 buy signals, suggesting a cautious outlook for short-term movements [3]. Derivative Products Performance - Following a phase of price increase on January 5, 2026, related warrants (窩輪) showed significant reactions, with UBS bull certificates (64102) rising by 27%, Societe Generale bull certificates (57689) by 24%, and Morgan Stanley call warrants (22028) by 23% within two days, highlighting the leverage effect of these products [3][5]. - The key factors influencing the price movements of warrants include the proximity of the exercise price to the underlying stock price and changes in implied volatility, which affects market expectations of future volatility [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - For investors holding HKEX-related warrants, it is advisable to set profit-taking levels, such as placing a stop-loss slightly below recent highs for Societe Generale bull certificates (69254) to avoid profit erosion [6]. - New investors are cautioned against chasing high-priced warrants that have already seen significant increases, such as UBS bull certificates (64102), and are encouraged to consider alternatives like Societe Generale bull certificates (69254) and Morgan Stanley call warrants (22028) due to their lower premium and higher leverage [6]. - For those with a bearish outlook on HKEX's short-term performance, Societe Generale bear certificates (69592) are recommended, as they offer the lowest premium and a high leverage of 19.1, allowing for better capitalizing on potential declines [6]. Selected Products Overview - A summary of selected products related to HKEX includes: - Morgan Stanley call warrant (22028) with a leverage of 13 - UBS call warrant (23422) with a leverage of 9.4 - Societe Generale bear certificate (69592) with a leverage of 19.1 [7].