Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the raw milk price is expected to bottom out and enter a new upward cycle by 2026, benefiting the profit elasticity of dairy farms [1] - The aging and natural elimination of dairy cows will lead to a continuous reduction in milk supply, as many cows from the previous expansion phase will reach the end of their productive life by 2026 [1] - The expiration of large packages of milk powder will accelerate inventory reduction, promoting the consumption of fresh raw milk [1] - The domestic substitution of dairy products is expected to accelerate, with new processing capacities coming online in 2025-2026, which will help absorb excess raw milk [1] Group 2 - The beef cycle indicates that live cattle prices have entered a new upward cycle, with a significant recovery from a low of 25.68 yuan/kg in February 2025 to 28.35 yuan/kg by November 2025 [2] - The current low level of scale in beef cattle farming has led to significant reductions in breeding herds due to previous price declines, which will contribute to a prolonged upward trend in beef prices once the cycle reverses [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of both raw milk and beef, with projected revenue growth rates of 1.2%, 9.6%, and 12.7% from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company has been given a buy rating with a target price of 6.69 HKD, based on a PB valuation method referencing historical peaks in the raw milk cycle [2]
优然牧业(09858.HK)：原奶周期与牛肉周期共振 龙头牧场利润弹性可期