极兔速递-W(1519.HK)Q4运营数据点评：东南亚及拉美市场件量高增

Core Viewpoint - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a total package volume of 8.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with an average daily package volume of 92 million. For the entire year of 2025, the total package volume surpassed 30 billion for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with an average daily package volume of 82.5 million, up 22.6%. The overall growth of J&T Express is attributed to strong performance in Southeast Asia and new markets, along with stable contributions from the Chinese market. The global package volume exceeding 30 billion in 2025 marks a new starting point for the company. The company will continue to strengthen its global network and drive growth through innovation to meet market demand [1][2][3]. Investment Logic - Southeast Asia maintains a solid leading position in the express delivery market, ranking first in package volume for six consecutive years. As the business scale increases, the company continues to optimize unit costs, allowing for cost reductions that benefit customers. This has led to the elimination of smaller express companies and a widening gap with competitors who have self-built logistics [5][6]. - J&T Express is positioned as a shadow stock benefiting from TikTok's global e-commerce expansion, which will accelerate in overseas markets starting in 2024, focusing on Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Due to its robust network and high cost-performance ratio, J&T Express supports TikTok's e-commerce business model [6][7]. Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the package volume in Southeast Asia reached 2.436 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while the total annual package volume for 2025 was 7.66 billion, up 67.8%. This growth is driven by increased investment from e-commerce platform clients, promotional activities, and a diverse range of product categories [2][3]. - The Chinese market saw a Q4 package volume of 5.89 billion, a slight decline of 0.4%, with an annual package volume of 22.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%. The slowdown in the Chinese express delivery industry is evident, prompting the company to adjust its strategy for quality growth [3][4]. - New markets experienced a Q4 package volume of 134 million, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with an annual volume of 404 million, up 43.6%. The low e-commerce penetration rate and the company's continuous improvement of the express network contribute to this growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - 2026 is expected to be a turning point for business explosion and profitability in the Latin American market, with e-commerce growth in 2025 exceeding the global average. The partnership with the largest e-commerce platform in Latin America, Mercado Libre, and the fastest-growing TikTok is anticipated to double order growth in 2026 [2][7]. - The company forecasts package volumes of 30.1 billion and 35.1 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.2% and 16.6%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $980 million and $1.44 billion for 2025 and 2026, with net profits of $260 million and $545 million [7][8].