极兔速递-W(01519.HK)点评:东南亚及新市场业务量高增 上调盈利预测

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express has shown strong growth in its operational performance, particularly in Southeast Asia, while facing challenges in the Chinese market. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the Southeast Asian logistics sector due to strategic investments and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 8.461 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%. The Southeast Asian package volume reached 2.436 billion pieces, up 73.6%, while the Chinese package volume was 5.891 billion pieces, down 0.4% [1]. - The new market package volume reached 134 million pieces in Q4 2025, marking a 79.7% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Jitu Express is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in Southeast Asia, with package volume projected to reach 7.366 billion pieces in Q4 2025, reflecting a 67.8% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by increased investments from e-commerce platforms and promotional activities [1]. - The company has established nine new transfer centers and added 80 self-owned transport vehicles in new markets, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Due to the better-than-expected growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, Jitu Express has revised its profit forecasts upward. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47%, respectively [2].