ZGXT(SZ:000831) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-09 00:48Core Viewpoint - Silver has transitioned from being merely a precious metal for jewelry and investment to a critical material in high-end manufacturing, driven by its superior conductivity and thermal properties [3][5]. Industry Importance - Silver is essential for various high-tech applications, including solar panels, electric vehicle components, chip packaging, and advanced military technologies [5][7]. - The ongoing global shifts towards AI, renewable energy, and military upgrades heavily rely on silver, making it a strategic resource comparable to rare earth elements [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a supply-demand gap for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of at least 3,660 tons by 2025 [10]. - Silver prices surged by 146% last year, significantly outpacing gold's 60% increase, highlighting the growing demand and limited supply [12]. Global Stockpiling Trends - Countries are increasingly stockpiling silver as a strategic asset, with the U.S. leading the charge by including silver in its critical minerals list, followed by nations like India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil [14][16]. - This global rush for silver not only drives prices higher but also positions silver as a focal point in economic competition [16]. China's Position - China faces a more pronounced supply-demand imbalance, producing only about 3,400 tons of silver annually while requiring over 9,400 tons, primarily for industrial use [18]. - Despite this, China holds a significant advantage in the silver supply chain, with 60% to 70% of global silver refining capacity located within its borders [19]. Regulatory Measures - In response to the global silver rush, China plans to implement strict export controls on silver starting in 2026, categorizing it as a strategic material [21]. - The new regulations will require exporters to meet specific criteria, including a minimum annual production of 80 tons and a three-year export history, thereby tightening the export process [23]. Market Outlook - Silver prices are expected to remain strong in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and China's export controls, which will further tighten global supply [27]. - China's regulatory policies are likely to influence the global market significantly, ensuring that domestic industries have priority access to silver resources [28].