铜价涨幅远超预期！高盛上调上半年目标价，但仍然坚持“美国关税后回调”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its short-term copper price forecast due to a significant price surge, but maintains that once U.S. tariffs are implemented, supply and demand fundamentals will regain influence [1][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Predictions - Copper prices have experienced extreme volatility, rising from under $11,000 per ton at the end of November to a peak of $13,387 per ton on January 6, marking a 22% increase [1]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2026 mid-year LME copper price forecast from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton [1]. - Despite the current price surge, Goldman Sachs does not expect prices above $13,000 to be sustainable and maintains a forecast of $11,200 per ton for Q4 2026 [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Three main themes are driving the current copper price increase: 1. Tight signals in the spot market, evidenced by a surge in metal withdrawal requests from LME warehouses in early December, indicating supply tightness outside the U.S. [4]. 2. The AI and data center boom continues to attract significant investment into the copper market, despite some fluctuations in mid-December [4]. 3. The macro narrative of "running the economy hot" is fueling expectations of accelerated U.S. economic growth and a rebound in cyclical demand, positively impacting copper and broader risk assets [5]. Group 3: Tariff Implications - The anticipated U.S. tariff decision on refined copper is expected to be a turning point, potentially ending the current stockpiling behavior in the U.S. [6]. - The U.S. Commerce Department has suggested delaying the imposition of tariffs on refined copper, increasing the likelihood that these tariffs may not be implemented [6]. - If tariffs are postponed, it could negatively impact LME copper prices as the market would refocus on global supply abundance [7]. Group 4: Market Fundamentals and Risks - Despite the current price boom, the global copper market fundamentals appear weak, with a projected surplus of 600,000 tons in 2025, the largest since 2009 [8]. - The surplus expectation for 2026 has been revised from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, and U.S. stockpiling expectations have been reduced from 7.5 million tons to 6 million tons [8]. - Speculative positions in the market have reached historical highs, indicating a potential late-stage market phase, although prices may still find support until key economic pillars collapse [9].