JINYU(SH:600201) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-09 01:30Core Viewpoint - The significant upward revision of profit forecasts for Shenghua Co. (600201.SH) by Kaiyuan Securities reflects a strong confidence in the company's growth prospects, particularly driven by the development of the African swine fever vaccine [1][6]. Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - In late October 2025, Kaiyuan Securities provided a cautious profit forecast for Shenghua Co. for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.88 billion, 3.52 billion, and 5.08 billion respectively [2]. - By January 8, 2026, the profit forecast for 2026 was dramatically increased to 7.12 billion, nearly doubling the previous estimate, while the 2027 forecast rose by over 138% to 12.11 billion [2]. Group 2: Key Drivers of Growth - The major adjustment in profit forecasts is primarily attributed to the unexpected progress in the research and development of the African swine fever subunit vaccine, with Shenghua Co. being the first and only company in China approved for clinical trials [3]. - The vaccine is expected to create an incremental market size of approximately 84 billion in China, positioning Shenghua Co. as a significant beneficiary due to its first-mover advantage [3]. Group 3: Traditional Business Performance - Besides the potential of the African swine fever vaccine, Shenghua Co.'s traditional business is also showing steady growth, with a 50% year-on-year increase in sales of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - Other vaccine products, including those for ruminants, poultry, and pets, are also experiencing strong growth, supported by a robust investment in R&D, which accounted for 13.51% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [4].