ZHIFEI-BIOL(SZ:300122) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-09 02:25Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Zhifei Biological (300122) regarding a loan application of up to 10.2 billion yuan highlights the urgent need to address a significant inventory pressure of approximately 20 billion yuan in the context of a 1.2 billion yuan loss in Q3 2025, reflecting the challenges faced by the Chinese vaccine industry amid supply-demand imbalances and price wars [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Situation - As of Q3 2025, Zhifei Biological reported a staggering inventory balance of 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from 8.986 billion yuan at the beginning of 2024, with accounts receivable reaching 12.814 billion yuan, resulting in a total of 33 billion yuan, which is over four times the revenue for that period [4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by over 50% to 26.07 billion yuan, with net profit plummeting nearly 75%, and by Q3 2025, the cumulative loss has expanded to 1.2 billion yuan [4]. - The proposed 10.2 billion yuan loan will increase the company's debt ratio from 36.18% to approximately 48%, nearing historical peaks, indicating severe financial strain [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The HPV vaccine market, once a profit engine, has shifted from a supply shortage to overcapacity, with sales declining since 2024, leading to a situation where Zhifei Biological is compelled to purchase vaccines it cannot sell due to prior high-volume procurement agreements [5]. - The competitive landscape has intensified with the introduction of domestic HPV vaccines at significantly lower prices, such as the 1,500 yuan full-course price of Wantai Biological's product, alongside drastic price reductions in other vaccine categories due to centralized procurement policies [6]. - The vaccine industry is undergoing a deep restructuring, with only 6 out of 17 listed vaccine companies remaining profitable in the first half of 2025, while many others face revenue declines exceeding 50% [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to the crisis, Zhifei Biological has prioritized inventory reduction, cash recovery, and debt reduction, launching vaccination initiatives across various regions, although challenges remain due to the industry-wide supply-demand imbalance [7]. - The company is accelerating the launch of its own products, aiming to increase the proportion of self-developed products in its revenue mix over the next three to five years, with significant products already in the application stage [7]. - The industry is witnessing a divergence in strategies, with many companies exploring overseas markets for growth, while experts emphasize the need for innovation and higher-tier vaccine development to survive the ongoing market reshuffle [8].