一年一代逼死客户，英伟达 Rubin 登场，AI 资本开支泡沫破裂倒计时

Core Viewpoint - Analysts maintain a "sell" rating on Nvidia (NVDA) due to concerns over slowing growth and high valuation, despite a recent recovery in growth as indicated by the latest quarterly earnings report [1] Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position and Performance - Nvidia's stock price has remained relatively stable since August, indicating a potential peak [1] - The company has released its third-generation AI platform, Rubin, which significantly outperforms the previous Blackwell platform, reducing inference token costs by up to 90% and improving efficiency by 400% [6][8] - The annual iteration of new AI chips is crucial for Nvidia to meet revenue growth expectations, similar to Apple's strategy with iPhones [4] Group 2: Industry Concerns and Risks - The AI sector is viewed as a bubble, with capital expenditures unlikely to yield profits, raising concerns about a potential market collapse if spending slows [3] - Major cloud service providers are extending the depreciation period of AI chips to artificially inflate profit margins, which may lead to significant write-downs once new chips are released [4][6] - The reliance on debt financing for AI capital expenditures among companies indicates a shift towards a credit crisis within the AI industry [10][11] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The upcoming CES in 2027 raises questions about Nvidia's ability to innovate and maintain its product cycle, which is critical for sustaining its valuation [12] - If Nvidia fails to keep up with its annual product updates, the implied growth expectations in its valuation may not be met, leading to a potential stock price decline [13] - The current AI commercialization process is lagging behind capital expenditure needs, posing operational challenges for Nvidia and the broader industry [16]