Chevron(US:CVX) Finbold·2026-01-09 10:39Core Viewpoint - Jim Cramer questions the investment appeal of oil stocks amid geopolitical tensions and U.S. government efforts to lower oil prices, drawing parallels to past market behaviors in 2016 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cramer highlights a recent rally in oil stocks, attributing it to Venezuelan President Maduro's capture and Trump's plans to utilize Venezuela's oil reserves to reduce U.S. crude prices to around $50 per barrel [2][6]. - The oil market experienced a significant downturn, with crude prices dropping nearly 20% in 2025, marking the steepest annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic [6]. Group 2: Investment Risks - Cramer warns that investors who bought oil stocks at recent highs may face risks if Venezuela increases its oil production, which could lead to a further decline in crude prices [3][4]. - Venezuela, holding the world's largest proven crude reserves, has seen its production capacity decline due to years of underinvestment and mismanagement, raising concerns about the speed of its industry revival [5][7]. Group 3: U.S. Oil Companies' Involvement - Trump's strategy includes limiting Russian and Chinese access to Venezuelan oil, positioning the U.S. as a key player in a Western Hemisphere energy bloc [6]. - U.S. oil companies, particularly Chevron, are hesitant to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure without solid guarantees from the U.S. government, despite Trump's claims of potential investments [7].