BABA(US:BABA) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-09 12:00Core Insights - The consensus on Wall Street is clear: despite macro headwinds facing its core e-commerce business, Alibaba is undergoing a profound transformation driven by accelerated cloud business and AI capital expenditures [1] - Analysts expect Alibaba Cloud to experience explosive revenue growth driven by AI demand, solidifying its position as China's leading AI enabler [1][2] - The "Quick Commerce" business under the "Taotian" group is making significant progress in loss control, indicating a balance between market share and profitability [1] Cloud Intelligence and AI Business - Alibaba Cloud is expected to be the highlight in the upcoming financial report, with revenue growth projected to exceed 35%, up from 34% in the previous quarter, and potentially accelerating to 40% by FY2027 [2] - Continuous investment in AI and the rollout of consumer applications are driving this growth, with significant upgrades to products like Qwen APP and Quark [2] - Analysts believe this will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of revenue growth acceleration for Alibaba Cloud, with current forecasts possibly being conservative [2] Profitability Analysis - Alibaba Cloud is expected to maintain a stable EBITA margin of around 9%, indicating effective cost control alongside rapid revenue expansion [3] - The overall adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 45% to 30 billion RMB, but this reflects a strategy of "exchanging short-term profits for long-term barriers" [5] - The losses in the instant retail segment are expected to narrow significantly, from 35 billion RMB in the previous quarter to 23 billion RMB, showing management's commitment to efficiency [5] Core E-commerce Business - Concerns about the slowdown in the core e-commerce business are attributed to short-term macroeconomic fluctuations rather than a loss of competitiveness [4] - The growth of the core e-commerce business is expected to slow to 3% due to a high base effect from the software service fee introduced last year [4] - Despite a challenging environment, Alibaba's market share in the core e-commerce sector remains relatively stable, indicating resilience [4] Valuation and Outlook - Morgan Stanley has lowered its adjusted EBITA expectations for FY2026 and FY2027 by 7% and 15%, respectively, and reduced the target price from $200 to $180, but maintains a bullish outlook [7] - Barclays retains a target price of $195, emphasizing Alibaba's attractiveness as a leading AI story in China [7] - The current stock price reflects expectations of consumer weakness but does not fully account for the acceleration in cloud business and improvements in loss-making segments [7]