浙商证券：2025年电影票房整体复苏 年底弱档期表现超预期

Core Viewpoint - The domestic film market in 2025 saw a significant recovery, with total box office revenue reaching 51.832 billion and total audience attendance at 1.238 billion, both showing over 20% growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Box Office Performance - The 2025 box office performance was driven by strong showings during key holiday periods, particularly the Spring Festival and summer seasons, which contributed the majority of the growth [2]. - The Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 9.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.69%, largely due to the success of "Nezha 2" [2]. - The summer box office totaled 11.966 billion, reflecting a 2.77% increase from the previous year [2]. Market Structure and Trends - The top 10 films in 2025 included 4 films that grossed over 3 billion and 8 films that surpassed 1 billion, indicating a concentration of box office revenue among a few major titles [3]. - The share of domestic films in total box office revenue was slightly higher than the previous year, but the number of mid-tier films (1-5 billion and 5-10 billion) saw a significant decline, indicating a "winner-takes-all" trend, especially in the animation sector [3]. Investment Opportunities - Despite the overall underperformance of the film industry compared to the market, there are short-term investment opportunities during strong holiday periods [4]. - The film industry index rose by 16.13% in 2025, which was lower than the media index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 27.17% and 17.66%, respectively [4]. Future Outlook - The film market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, with projected box office revenue reaching 53.1 billion, supported by a strong lineup of films during key periods [6]. - The recovery of box office revenue is anticipated to positively impact non-box office income, such as merchandise and advertising revenue, as consumer spending on cultural entertainment increases [6].