Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (SZ:000792) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-09 23:38Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) has seen a significant upward revision in its 2026 profit expectations, driven by improved industry conditions in potassium and lithium, as well as strong new capacity and asset injection plans [1][6]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 8.29 billion to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%, exceeding previous market expectations [1]. - Prior to the earnings forecast, sell-side analysts had projected 2026 profit expectations in the range of 6.2 billion to 8.2 billion yuan, which were subsequently raised to around 10 billion yuan, with some firms like Everbright Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan estimating around 12 billion yuan [1][6]. - The recent surge in profit expectations is attributed to the anticipated increase in potassium and lithium industry conditions, alongside the company's strong new capacity and asset injection plans [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of potassium chloride has increased compared to the same period last year, while lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility but are gradually recovering in the second half of the year, contributing to overall revenue growth [2]. - In 2025, the ex-factory price of potassium chloride rose from 2,550 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, with an annual average price of 2,938.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 16.68% [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased from 90,500 yuan/ton to around 75,500 yuan/ton, marking a decline of 16.57% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Production and Sales - For 2025, the company anticipates a potassium chloride production of approximately 4.9 million tons and sales of about 3.8143 million tons, alongside lithium carbonate production of around 46,500 tons and sales of about 45,600 tons [3]. - Compared to 2024, potassium chloride sales decreased by 18.37%, while lithium carbonate sales increased by 9.6%, indicating stable overall performance in the company's main business [4]. Group 4: Capacity Expansion - The company’s lithium salt production capacity is expected to increase significantly, with rights-based capacity projected to rise from 20,000 tons (excluding the newly launched 40,000 tons integrated project) to approximately 69,000 tons, representing a growth rate of 245% [9]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, which will add 300,000 tons/year of potassium chloride capacity and 18,000 tons of lithium salt capacity to its consolidated financial statements [8]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The overall revenue and profit structure of the company have changed significantly since the peak of lithium prices in 2022, with the revenue and gross profit contributions from lithium carbonate products declining to 18.32% and 16% by the first half of 2025 [10]. - The average market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from 96,000 yuan/ton to 140,000 yuan/ton since late December 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the lithium market [10]. Group 6: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The company's stock price has increased by 71% in 2025, aligning with the profit growth forecast [12]. - As of January 9, 2026, the company's stock price was 31.28 yuan, with an estimated earnings per share of approximately 1.62 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 times [14]. - The potential profit growth for 2026 could increase earnings per share to around 2.02 yuan, reducing the price-to-earnings ratio to approximately 15.5 times [14].