镍价狂飙两周暴涨逾20%，概念股集体走强，兴业银锡年内涨超18%

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged significantly since mid-December 2022, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and increased investment in China's metal market, although signs of cooling have emerged recently [1][5]. Group 1: Nickel Price Movements - On January 6, 2023, three-month nickel futures in London surged by 10.5% to nearly $18,800 per ton, marking the largest single-day increase since late 2022 [1]. - As of January 9, 2023, the price fell to $17,155 per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.3% [1]. - The recent nickel price rally has led to strong performances in related stocks, with Guiyan Platinum Industries up nearly 16% and Xingye Silver Tin up over 18% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia controls approximately 70% of global nickel production and plans to reduce production quotas by about 34% to 250 million tons by 2026 [6][10]. - The Indonesian government is also adjusting nickel pricing formulas and imposing taxes on by-products like cobalt, which could increase production costs [6][11]. - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's shift from expansion to active regulation aims to stabilize prices and address supply concerns [6][11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Current market sentiment indicates limited downside for nickel prices, with predictions suggesting an average price of $15,250 per ton by 2026 if no significant production cuts occur [3]. - Despite recent price increases, analysts warn that the underlying oversupply situation has not changed, and prices may decline if demand does not significantly increase [14][15]. - The potential for structural changes in demand due to high nickel prices exists, but large-scale substitutions are unlikely in the short term [16].