林清轩(02657.HK)：以油养肤赛道风起 山茶花油龙头高端护肤破局

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan is establishing a high-end skincare brand centered around "Camellia" and the concept of "oil-based skincare," creating a brand symbol with distinctive Chinese cultural characteristics. The company aims for growth through core flagship products and a closed-loop OMO ecosystem, accumulating localized online traffic while enhancing customer loyalty and repurchase rates through offline experiences, achieving "high conversion + high repurchase" [1]. Group 1: Brand and Product Strategy - The company focuses on the "oil-based skincare" segment, using Camellia as a unique brand symbol to shape the image of domestic high-end skincare. It targets the niche category of "essence oil" for precise market entry, establishing a differentiated position and unique recognition in consumers' minds [2]. - The core product, Camellia oil, is positioned as a benchmark in the "oil-based skincare" segment, accumulating high repurchase rates due to its strong efficacy. The product matrix has expanded to include other mainstream skincare products, such as Camellia Brightening Essence Cream and High SPF Sunscreen, which have become bestsellers [2]. - The company integrates the entire value chain of its core ingredients, leveraging high-quality raw materials and exclusive patented technology to enhance product strength [2]. Group 2: Marketing and Channel Strategy - The marketing strategy includes building a "real person IP matrix" and a local life matrix, maintaining active interactions on platforms like Douyin and WeChat to improve conversion rates through genuine human engagement [2]. - A closed-loop OMO ecosystem is established, where online platforms serve as traffic entry points and offline stores provide high-touch services, creating a dual-driven growth model [2]. Group 3: Future Growth Path - The essence oil flagship product is expected to remain the core driver of growth, with projected revenues reaching 1 billion in 2025 and 2 billion in 2027 [3]. - Online channels are anticipated to experience rapid growth, particularly through Douyin, while offline channels are expected to grow by over 40% in 2025, with offline store growth projected at over 25% [3]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in the number of direct-operated stores and rapid expansion of franchise and joint venture stores, contributing to overall growth [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Short-term growth is highly certain, while long-term success will depend on cross-category expansion. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the "oil-based skincare" segment, with short-term growth showing high certainty [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.2 billion, 3.21 billion, and 4.14 billion respectively, with net profits of 380 million, 580 million, and 770 million, corresponding to PE ratios of 27, 18, and 14 times [3].