金价、银价大幅波动！原因找到了

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, continue their bullish trend in the first full trading week of 2026, with significant price increases driven by geopolitical tensions and rising market volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold and silver futures prices increased by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively during the week, reflecting heightened market demand due to geopolitical events and economic conditions [1]. - Silver futures exhibited extreme volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs highlighted that silver lacks the demand support from global central bank reserves, making its price more sensitive to market liquidity changes, predicting continued price increases but with higher volatility compared to gold [5]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index underwent an annual rebalancing, significantly reducing the weight of precious metals, which may trigger passive liquidation by index-tracking funds, adding downward pressure on gold and silver prices [7]. Group 3: Margin Adjustments - The CME Group raised the margin requirements for trading gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the third time in a month, with silver margins increasing by 28.6%, which typically curbs high-leverage and speculative trading [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term downward pressures, multiple financial institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have upward potential this year [9]. - Goldman Sachs noted that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, aimed at normalizing monetary policy rather than stimulating economic activity, could drive metal prices higher, particularly for precious metals and copper [11].