国盛证券：国内风电需求稳中有升 海风静待规划落地

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates a significant shift towards offshore wind power development in China, with expectations for accelerated planning and growth in the sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Group 1: Wind Power Development - Onshore and offshore wind power tenders are projected to reach 97 GW and 5 GW respectively by the first three quarters of 2025, with approvals of 124 GW and 8.6 GW from January to November 2025 [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to increase the share of wind power in new energy installations from 25% to 50%, targeting an annual installation capacity of 130 GW [1] - The government has explicitly stated the intention to develop offshore wind power, which is expected to be a key focus area for growth [1] Group 2: European Offshore Wind Market - European offshore wind is expected to accelerate, with policies supporting nearly 100 GW of offshore wind plans across multiple countries, and auction volumes anticipated to exceed 19.5 GW by 2025 [2] - The global floating wind market is projected to enter a growth phase, with an estimated 5.5 GW of floating wind projects expected to start installation by 2030 [2] - The domestic wind turbine market is experiencing price increases, with an average bid price for onshore wind turbines rising approximately 12% in the first ten months of 2025 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Submarine Cable Demand - The penetration rate of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology in domestic submarine cables is expected to increase, leading to a doubling of demand for submarine cables due to rising interconnection needs [3] - Major domestic cable manufacturers are expected to secure orders from Europe, where local production capacity is constrained [3] - The total demand for submarine cables from 2025 to 2040 is projected to reach 231,800 km, with approximately 89,000 km dedicated to power interconnections [3] Group 4: Offshore Engineering Sector - The domestic offshore engineering sector is witnessing a profitability turning point, with increased utilization rates expected to enhance earnings [4] - European offshore wind projects are facing tight capacity and rising prices due to production delays and labor strikes [4] - Companies that can produce floating foundations are likely to enjoy higher profit margins due to the complexity and cost associated with their production [4] Group 5: Component Market - The production capacity for main shaft castings is under pressure, with increased demand for gearboxes and bearings expected [5] - The market share for gearbox manufacturers is anticipated to grow as they expand production capacity [5] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch in the turbine sector include Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and SANY Heavy Energy [6] - In the offshore wind sector, companies such as Dajin Heavy Industry, Oriental Cable, and Tianjun Wind Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] - Component manufacturers like Jinlei Co., Delijia, and Weili Transmission are also recommended for consideration [6]