国金证券：保险负债端高景气，重点推荐开门红头部险企

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is expected to experience high growth on the liability side, particularly through the bancassurance channel, while benefiting from the spring market rally, indicating a sustained bullish trend for insurance stocks [1][6]. Group 1: Market Activity and Trends - January saw a strong market opening with significant trading activity, as the average daily stock fund turnover exceeded 30 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 137% [2]. - The financing balance and margin balance recorded 2,609.9 billion yuan and 17.7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4% and 6.9% compared to the previous week [2]. - The average daily margin balance since 2026 reached 2,598.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 42% [2]. Group 2: M&A Market Performance - The M&A market in 2025 demonstrated strong performance with a total of 8,151 disclosed M&A events, a slight decrease of 0.72% year-on-year, while the total transaction value reached approximately 25,894 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.12% [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokers that are expected to rebound during the spring market rally, with strong recommendations for quality brokers like Guotai Junan [4]. - Attention is drawn to Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from investments in gene therapy [4]. - Highlighting the impressive growth rates of diversified financial companies, recommendations include Yixin Group, Far East Horizon, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [4]. Group 4: Bancassurance Growth Drivers - The shift of deposits to insurance is anticipated to drive significant growth in the bancassurance channel, with projected incremental funds of 3,057 billion yuan in January, 5,094 billion yuan in Q1, and 11,150 billion yuan for the entire year of 2026, corresponding to growth rates of 91%, 59%, and 28% respectively [5]. - The growth of leading insurance companies is expected to outpace the market due to stricter product entry requirements and improved profitability in the bancassurance channel [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is entering a phase of simultaneous volume and price increases on the liability side, driven by the migration of deposits and strong demand for retirement savings [6]. - The stability or improvement of the stock market and interest rates is crucial for supporting the expansion of large insurance companies' balance sheets [6].