布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：生产率与AI驱动增长 高盛预测美国经济前景乐观

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs economists predict multiple positive factors will boost the US economy this year, including tax cuts, rising real wages, and accumulated household wealth [1] - The report forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in mid-year and the second half of the year due to increased uncertainty in the labor market [4] - The structure of GDP growth in the US is expected to differ from previous cycles, relying more on productivity improvements rather than labor supply growth, with productivity showing signs of rebound driven by technology [4] Group 2 - Core inflation is predicted to decline to near long-term target levels by year-end, indicating a trend of easing price growth [6] - The unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively stable, although there is a potential risk of "no job growth" as companies may optimize costs using AI technologies [6] - Consumer spending is anticipated to grow steadily due to the dual support of tax cuts and real income growth, while corporate investment is expected to be the strongest driver of annual economic growth [6]