Micron Technology(US:MU) Xuan Gu Bao·2026-01-12 11:21Core Insights - Micron executives indicate that despite significant investments, the memory shortage issue will not improve until 2028 [1] - The current supply constraints are driven by a surge in AI data center demand combined with increasing complexity in memory manufacturing [1] - The structural change in DRAM demand, particularly from data centers and AI, has risen from 30%-40% to 50%-60% of the total DRAM market [2] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The memory supply issue is not unique to Micron but is an industry-wide constraint affecting all major memory manufacturers [2] - The shift in demand prioritization towards AI does not equate to consumer neglect; rather, it reflects a temporary supply mismatch due to the expanding total addressable market (TAM) [2] - Micron emphasizes that simply increasing production capacity will not alleviate the shortage, as the main bottleneck is the fragmentation of product specifications leading to production inefficiencies [3] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The production bottleneck arises from the need for frequent switching between different product designs, which reduces effective output [3] - Micron is working to minimize the variety of chip specifications to maximize output efficiency [3] - New capacity from Micron's ID1 wafer fab in Idaho is expected to come online in mid-2027, but significant scale production will take additional time, likely pushing substantial supply changes to 2028 [4]