国信证券：动力煤供需两侧均有看点 炼焦煤阶段性机会仍存

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in 2025, coal demand is expected to remain weak, but policy interventions will help regulate supply and improve the industry supply-demand balance [1] - In 2026, both supply and demand sides are anticipated to show potential, with the price of thermal coal expected to fluctuate between 650-850 RMB/ton, centered around 750 RMB/ton [2] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production peak is expected to be around 4.8 billion tons, with limited growth in production capacity due to policy focus on safety and stability [2][3] Group 2 - In 2025, domestic raw coal production remained high with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while coal consumption only saw a slight increase of 0.4%, leading to a significant drop in coal prices from 763 RMB/ton to 610 RMB/ton [1] - The report notes that the demand for thermal coal is expected to recover in 2026, with a positive growth outlook for thermal power generation, while non-electric demand from the chemical sector is likely to maintain growth [2] - For coking coal, despite limited growth in domestic resources, the price is expected to rise by approximately 100 RMB/ton in 2026 due to policy impacts and overall industry improvement [3]