Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite facing margin pressure, the company is expected to see a recovery this year, leading to a reaffirmation of the "buy" rating by the firm [1] - The target price for Lao Pu Gold (06181) has been reduced from HKD 1,103 to HKD 981, corresponding to forecasted P/E ratios of 22x and 17x for 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The firm anticipates a significant increase in net profit for Lao Pu Gold, projecting RMB 2.3 billion for the second half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 155% [1] Group 2 - Sales revenue for Lao Pu Gold is expected to reach RMB 15.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 207% [1] - The net profit forecasts for Lao Pu Gold for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 14%, 6%, and 12% respectively, due to high gold prices impacting gross margins and a normalization of growth in 2027 [1] - In the domestic market, sales are projected to be RMB 13 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 188%, and average sales per store are expected to increase by 130% [1] - For the overseas market, sales are forecasted to reach RMB 2.2 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 295% [1] - The expected gross margin for the period is 36.4%, down from 38.1% in the first half of the year [1]
富瑞：降老铺黄金目标价至981港元 金价高企抑制毛利