HKEX(HK:00388) Ge Long Hui·2026-01-13 05:48Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) will see a year-on-year increase in net profit and revenue for Q4 2025, projected to reach HKD 39 billion and HKD 68 billion respectively, despite a quarterly decline of 20% and 13% due to weak trading activity, reduced net investment income, and rising operating expenses [1] Financial Performance - The expected net investment income for Q4 is projected to decline by 29% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 8.56 billion, primarily impacted by the weakening of the Hong Kong interbank offered rate during the interest rate cut cycle [1] - Operating expenses are anticipated to rise by 6% quarter-on-quarter but decrease by 2% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control measures [1] Future Outlook - For 2026 and 2027, the daily trading volume forecasts have been revised upwards from HKD 222 billion and HKD 240 billion to HKD 236 billion and HKD 250 billion respectively [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have also been adjusted upwards by 8% and 4% for the respective years [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has set a target price of HKD 471 for HKEX and maintains a "Neutral" rating [1]