小摩：降百威亚太目标价至7.9港元 维持“中性”评级

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Budweiser APAC (01876) will see natural sales and EBITDA decline by 6.4% and 8.6% respectively in 2025, followed by average annual growth of 4% and 6% in 2026-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 8.5 to HKD 7.9, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The expected dividend yield for the company is projected to reach 5.7%, providing downside support for its stock price [1] Group 2: Recent Performance - The company is anticipated to report a 5.4% year-on-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of last year, compared to declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in the third quarter [1] - Budweiser APAC's business in China remains weak, while growth in South Korea has slowed due to a high base, and strong growth in India has not significantly improved overall group performance [1] Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategy - Despite increasing advertising and promotional investments in home channels, sales and profits in China continue to be under pressure [1]