SWSC(SH:600369) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-13 09:13Core Viewpoint - The home appliance industry in China is expected to remain in a recovery phase in 2026, influenced by high base effects and demand being pre-consumed, while facing a new normal due to "national subsidies" and "tariffs" [1][4] Group 1: 2025 Review - The Shenwan Home Appliance Index rose by 9.1% in 2025, ranking 24th among Shenwan industries [1] - In the first half of 2025, the national subsidy policy was seamlessly extended, enhancing convenience in the online market, leading to a performance alignment with the CSI 300 [1] - In the second half of 2025, the home appliance index lagged behind the market due to a decline in domestic subsidies and uncertainties regarding export tariffs [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - Domestic demand is expected to be impacted by high base effects until mid-2026, but a turning point may emerge later [3] - Export-oriented home appliance companies are likely to experience valuation recovery despite uncertainties in Sino-U.S. trade relations [3] - The supply side remains stable, but overseas capacity construction may pressure domestic capacity utilization, leading to potential oversupply in 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Themes - Theme One: Focus on Leading Companies Leading companies are expected to demonstrate resilience in adversity, with high dividend yields becoming attractive as competition intensifies [5][6] - Theme Two: Focus on Overseas Expansion Chinese home appliance companies are enhancing their global presence, with traditional markets becoming less sensitive to tariff impacts and emerging markets offering significant growth potential [7] - Theme Three: Long-term Consumption Upgrade The trend of consumption upgrade continues, with a focus on innovative product categories and enhanced consumer experiences, despite a temporary slowdown in economic growth [8]