大摩推迟今年首次降息预期，称美联储的重心已从就业转向通胀

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from January and April to June and September, shifting the focus from the labor market to inflation as the core rationale for policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Recent improvements in economic momentum and a decrease in unemployment have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement emergency rate cuts to stabilize the labor market [2][7]. - The focus of policy is now on inflation, with the need to wait for the full price transmission effects of tariffs and to confirm a clear and sustainable trend of inflation returning to the 2% target before initiating a rate cut cycle [2][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The anticipated process of inflation slowing is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026, leading to the adjustment of the first rate cut expectations to June and September, with each cut projected to be 25 basis points [7]. - The current market pricing of the policy rate terminal value (approximately 3.11%) is closely aligned with Morgan Stanley's economists' scenario analysis (3.22%), but the market is still underestimating downside risks [8][13]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - The market's probability distribution for various macroeconomic scenarios shows a significant underpricing of "tail risks," with only 7% allocated to mild recession scenarios, indicating a need for a more dovish pricing path [8][13]. - As time progresses, if economic or inflation data deviates from expectations, there remains potential for further downward adjustments in the market's pricing of the policy rate's lowest point, likely occurring after mid-2026 rather than in the short term [13].