存货、巨亏、紧急贷款，智飞生物面临质押求生时刻

Core Viewpoint - Zhifei Biological is facing its most severe performance test since its listing, with a projected net loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of over 600% [1][4] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 630% to 780% compared to the previous year [3][4] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative loss reached 1.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 156.1% [4] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.74%, with net profit plummeting by 74.99% to only 2.018 billion yuan [4][5] Business Dependency and Market Conditions - Zhifei Biological's revenue heavily relies on its agency products, which accounted for over 90% of its revenue in previous years, but saw a 75.16% decline in the first half of 2025 [5][6] - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing a downturn due to increased competition from domestic vaccines and a decline in public willingness to get vaccinated [6][8] Inventory and Procurement Challenges - The company is under pressure from high inventory levels, with stock exceeding 20.246 billion yuan, representing over 40% of total assets [7][9] - A procurement agreement with Merck for 98 billion yuan of HPV vaccines is still in effect, despite the market downturn, leading to significant inventory accumulation [7][9] Financial Strain and Loan Application - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had total liabilities of 16.786 billion yuan, with short-term borrowings of 10.318 billion yuan and cash reserves of only 2.498 billion yuan, indicating severe short-term repayment pressure [9] - To alleviate financial strain, the company has applied for a syndicated loan of up to 10.2 billion yuan [9][10] Strategic Shifts and Future Prospects - The company is attempting to diversify its business by investing in new areas such as GLP-1 and metabolic disease treatments, with a recent investment of 5.93 billion yuan in Chongqing Chen'an Biological Pharmaceutical Co., acquiring a 51% stake [10][11] - Despite the potential of new business lines, short-term profitability is uncertain due to market competition and the need for a 3-5 year cultivation period [11][12]