格隆汇2026“全球视野”十大核心资产之特斯拉（TSLA）

Core Viewpoint - Tesla (TSLA) has been recognized as a core asset in the technology sector due to its leadership in new energy, AI, and future mobility, as highlighted in the 2026 "Global Vision" core asset list by Gelonghui [1] Group 1: Strategic Transition - Elon Musk has set a timeline for disruptive technologies, indicating that by 2026, AI intelligence will surpass the smartest human individuals, and by 2029, it will exceed the collective intelligence of all humanity [3] - The "Master Plan 4.0" aims to increase Tesla's market value from $1 trillion to $8.5 trillion through 12 milestones, focusing on "unlimited growth, innovative breakthroughs, and technology accessibility" [3] - Tesla's global production network includes six super factories, with the Shanghai factory expected to produce 950,000 units by 2025, contributing over 50% of global output [3] Group 2: Business Resilience - Tesla's energy storage and electric vehicle businesses are positioned as growth engines, with Q3 2025 revenue from energy storage reaching $3.415 billion, a 44% year-over-year increase [6] - The global supercharging network has expanded with over 3,500 new charging points, bringing the total to 7,753 stations, a 16% increase year-over-year [7] - In Q3 2025, Tesla delivered 497,100 vehicles globally, a 7% increase year-over-year, with automotive revenue reaching $21.205 billion [7] Group 3: Future Imagination - Tesla's future valuation is heavily reliant on AI-driven initiatives such as Robotaxi and Optimus, which are seen as pivotal in the transition from carbon-based to silicon-based civilization [9] - The commercial path for Optimus includes replacing 30% of Tesla's factory workforce initially, with long-term goals targeting a $20 billion revenue by 2030 [9] - Robotaxi operations have begun in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, with plans to expand to major U.S. cities by 2026 [9] Group 4: Financials and Valuation - Tesla's financials show strong cash flow but weak profitability, with Q3 2025 free cash flow at $3.99 billion, a 46% year-over-year increase [13] - The current market valuation of $1.46 trillion is primarily driven by future business expectations, with estimates for 2030 valuation ranging from $1.17 trillion to $3.25 trillion [14] - Short-term profitability pressures are evident, with adjusted EPS at $0.50, down 31% year-over-year, and net profit at $1.77 billion, down 29% year-over-year [14] Group 5: Global Betting in 2000 Days - Tesla is evolving from a mere electric vehicle manufacturer to a global integrator of AI, energy, and mobility ecosystems, with the 2000-day countdown serving as a critical strategic impetus [16] - China holds significant advantages in energy infrastructure, which could impact Tesla's operational costs and manufacturing strategies [16] - The future of AI dominance is linked to energy management capabilities, emphasizing the importance of energy efficiency in Tesla's strategic planning [17]