34国聚华盛顿，美国挥刀斩中国稀土命脉？这盘棋下得太狠！

Core Viewpoint - The meeting in Washington involving representatives from 34 countries signifies a strategic move by the U.S. to undermine China's dominance in the rare earth industry, which is viewed as a national security risk [1]. Group 1: Supply Chain Strategy - The U.S. is implementing a strategic decoupling from China by investing $8.5 billion in rare earth refining and global mineral investment funds, aiming to completely remove China from the critical mineral supply chain [3]. - The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that rebuilding a complete rare earth supply chain will require at least $300 billion and take a decade, while China's refining costs are only one-fourth of those in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: International Collaboration and Interests - The U.S. aims to establish itself as a rule-maker among key mineral demand countries, but there is resistance from the EU, with Germany expressing concerns about becoming an economic pawn for the U.S. [4]. - Countries like India and Mexico are balancing their relationships, increasing imports from China while publicly supporting U.S. initiatives, indicating that they are not willing to be mere pawns in this geopolitical game [4]. Group 3: Economic and Political Dynamics - The U.S. is intertwining economic strategies with geopolitical competition by proposing a "democratic nation supply chain alliance," which aims to share the costs of supply chain restructuring among allies [6]. - However, the deep integration of global supply chains with China poses significant challenges for the U.S. to effectively implement this strategy without increasing costs for businesses and consumers [6]. Group 4: China's Competitive Advantages - China holds significant advantages in the rare earth sector, including leading separation and purification technology, which is difficult to replicate and requires extensive processing [9]. - The cost of rare earth refining in China is substantially lower due to a complete industrial chain and economies of scale, making it challenging for the U.S. to compete even with substantial investment [9]. - The global market's reliance on Chinese rare earths in industries such as renewable energy, AI, and defense creates a strong market stickiness that complicates U.S. efforts to decouple [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In the short term, the U.S. may achieve minor "de-risking" actions, but it is unlikely to significantly alter China's position in the critical minerals sector [11]. - A dual-track supply chain system may emerge, consisting of a "Western ally supply chain" and a "global mainstream supply chain," but complete detachment from China is deemed unrealistic [11]. - The U.S. strategic goal of maintaining technological and industrial hegemony through supply chain reconstruction faces substantial barriers, including differing interests among allies and inherent technological and cost challenges [11].