2026，中国智驾驶入决赛圈

Core Insights - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology has demonstrated its capability by completing a 4,397 km journey across the U.S. without human intervention, showcasing its stability in complex driving conditions [1] - The competition in the autonomous driving sector is intensifying, particularly in China, where several companies are facing significant challenges, leading to a consolidation of players [1] - The industry consensus is that by 2026, only two to three companies will emerge as leaders in the autonomous driving space [1] Group 1: Tesla's Technological Advancements - Tesla's FSD V12 and V14 represent critical turning points, with V12 proving the feasibility of a model-driven end-to-end approach, prompting the industry to shift towards this model [2] - FSD V14 addresses the limitations of previous versions by integrating a reasoning capability, leading to a potential unification of L2 and L4 development paradigms [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape in China - Companies like Horizon Robotics, Zhaojun Technology, and WeRide are emerging as strong competitors, with Horizon completing a significant technology architecture switch and launching its HSD model [3][4] - WeRide has shifted focus from L4 Robotaxi to L2+ solutions, achieving rapid development and production timelines [3] - Zhaojun Technology has adopted an aggressive strategy by completely overhauling its previous technology framework to focus on end-to-end solutions [4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The industry is witnessing a shift from rule-based to model-driven approaches, with VLA (Vision-Language-Action) models gaining traction among manufacturers like Xpeng and Li Auto [5][6] - Huawei is taking a different approach by rejecting VLA in favor of WA (World Action) models, emphasizing the need for a more streamlined process [6] - The competition is expected to intensify as companies strive to secure sufficient data and funding to support their autonomous driving technologies [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The autonomous driving sector is entering a phase of stricter regulations and increased competition, with a focus on L2+ and urban navigation assistance (NOA) as immediate priorities for many companies [12] - By 2026, the market is anticipated to narrow down to a few key players, with Huawei currently leading the pack, followed by Horizon, Momenta, and WeRide [12][13]