Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the recombinant collagen market, highlighting its advantages in safety, efficacy, and sustainability, which are seen as fundamental drivers for industry development [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Recombinant collagen production occurs in controlled fermentation environments, mitigating risks associated with animal-derived collagen, such as viral transmission and allergic reactions [1] - The technology allows for precise production of recombinant collagen with specific amino acid sequences, enhancing targeted efficacy for various applications, including anti-wrinkle and tissue regeneration [1] - The fermentation process offers scalability and consistency, enabling low-cost, high-quality production, thus overcoming limitations faced by animal-derived collagen [1] Group 2: Company Performance - The company operates six brands centered around recombinant collagen, with key brands contributing over 95% of revenue; projected revenues for 2024 are 4.54 billion and 840 million for the two main brands, with compound annual growth rates of 73.4% and 11.8% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [2] - The company is facing short-term operational pressures due to market discussions surrounding the content and testing methods of recombinant collagen, impacting brand performance, particularly for its flagship product [2] - The company is shifting from reliance on a single product to a strategy of "multiple brands, multiple categories, and multiple channels" to address challenges [2] Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - Plans for 2026 include launching a medical device and five skincare lines, with marketing efforts focused on core products [3] - The company aims to enhance its brand presence through collaborations and expanding its retail footprint, including increasing coverage in approximately 150,000 pharmacies nationwide [3] - The medical aesthetics sector is identified as a strategic growth area, with plans to establish a dedicated division and expand into around 2,000 medical aesthetic institutions by 2026 [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is rated "outperform" with a target price of 43.6 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 22.0%; revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.49 billion, 5.99 billion, and 6.69 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of -0.9%, 9.1%, and 11.8% [4] - Gross margins are projected to remain stable at around 80.5% to 79.2% from 2025 to 2027, while net profit margins are expected to decline slightly [4]
巨子生物(02367.HK)：重组胶原蛋白领军者 2026战略转型开启品牌化新篇章