这不是科幻！2030年，太空数据中心成本将追平地面

Core Insights - The transition from theoretical discussions to economic feasibility for deploying high-energy AI computing in space is underway, with significant cost reductions anticipated in the coming decade [1] Cost Gap Rapidly Closing - Deutsche Bank's model indicates that while current costs for deploying a 1 GW space data center are at least seven times higher than terrestrial costs, this gap is expected to narrow to four times by the late 2020s and achieve cost parity in the 2030s [2] - In a projected scenario for 2026, the cost for space deployment is estimated at $114 billion compared to $16 billion for terrestrial setups, resulting in a 7.2x difference. By the "2032 optimized scenario," space deployment costs could drop to $18 billion, nearly equal to terrestrial costs at $16 billion, with a difference factor of only 1.2x [2] Launch Cost Decline as a Key Factor - The dramatic decrease in launch costs is identified as a critical variable for achieving economic viability. The model predicts that launch costs per kilogram will plummet from $1,600 in 2026 to $67 by 2032 [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of complete rocket reusability and operational scaling, suggesting that launch costs could potentially fall to as low as $1 million or even below $70 per kilogram over time [4] Hardware Optimization - Significant advancements in orbital hardware are also expected, with projections indicating that the cost of a single satellite could drop below $2 million (or just $10,000 per kW) by the 2030s [7] - These optimized satellites will feature a 150 kW power system and custom chips designed specifically for space AI infrastructure, connected via optical laser terminals [7] Considerations and Assumptions - Deutsche Bank acknowledges that its model is based on the assumption that terrestrial capacity costs remain unchanged. The model primarily compares costs related to power, cooling, and weight, excluding expensive GPU/TPU chip procurement costs [8] - The report warns that if rapid and inexpensive power generation methods (e.g., nuclear energy) emerge on the ground, the assumptions regarding space data centers may no longer hold true [8] - This indicates that the logic behind space data centers depends not only on advancements in space technology but also on the stagnation of ground energy revolutions [9]