Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-15 07:08Core Viewpoint - The global asset landscape is undergoing a historic transformation as silver prices have surpassed $90 per ounce for the first time, elevating its market capitalization to $5.039 trillion, making it the second-largest asset globally, following gold [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The surge in silver's market value is attributed to a dual resonance of its financial and industrial properties. Financially, expectations of global liquidity easing and heightened risk aversion are driving investment into precious metals. Geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-Iran and U.S.-Venezuela situations, further enhance silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - On the industrial side, there is a significant demand gap for silver, driven by its essential role in emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers. Projections indicate that global photovoltaic installations will exceed 600 GW by 2026, leading to a silver paste demand of 8,900 tons. Additionally, the silver consumption in electric vehicles is expected to surpass 3,600 tons annually, and AI servers will require three times more silver than traditional servers, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 26% in the AI sector [3]. Supply Constraints - The supply side is tightening, with global silver shortages persisting for five consecutive years. The anticipated shortfall is expected to widen to 6,300 tons by 2026, while independent silver mines account for only 28% of production. Low capital expenditure and aging mines have led to stagnation in supply growth, with visible inventories at major exchanges dropping to a ten-year low, resulting in a consumption-to-inventory ratio of only 0.68 [3]. Market Sentiment - The market's enthusiasm for silver is reflected in the significant inflows into the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, which recently increased its holdings by 39.47 tons, reaching a historical high of 16,347.95 tons. This indicates strong institutional confidence in long-term allocations [4]. - In the futures market, speculative sentiment is high, with the main silver futures contract's open interest rising to 344,700 lots. However, measures have been implemented to cool the market, including raising margin requirements and limiting intraday positions [4]. Diverging Views - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding whether to chase the rising silver prices. The bullish camp believes in the continuation of the strong trend, supported by the long-term supply-demand gap and macroeconomic benefits. Institutions like BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley have set price targets of $100 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and physical shortages as key support factors [4]. - Conversely, the bearish camp warns of potential high-level corrections. JPMorgan has predicted an average silver price of $40.2 per ounce in 2026, citing factors such as index weight adjustments leading to $7 billion in sell orders and the potential for profit-taking due to cooling measures. Other firms, like TD Securities, have established short positions betting on a drop to $40 [5]. Short-Term Outlook - Despite differing opinions, most institutions agree that silver is likely to experience a short-term correction in Q1 2026. Factors such as index adjustments and a low probability of Fed rate cuts could lead to a rebound in the dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. The expected correction range is between $55 and $60 per ounce, with a potential decline of 20-30% [6]. - Key variables influencing silver's future include inventory changes at major exchanges and monthly data on global photovoltaic installations, which reflect the tightness of the physical market and industrial demand resilience. Additionally, the direction of U.S. monetary policy and tariffs on key minerals will play a crucial role in shaping silver's financial attributes [6].