BOCIC(SH:601696) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-15 08:03Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference has reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, indicating potential space for further easing measures [1][4]. Monetary Policy Signals - The new phrasing of "flexible and efficient" suggests that if necessary, the central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic conditions, indicating that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions [4]. - RRR and interest rate cuts are not the only options for maintaining liquidity; other quantitative adjustment tools can be utilized, and structural monetary policy tools can be optimized to lower overall financing costs [5]. Policy Effectiveness and Adjustments - The actual easing measures in 2025 appear to be less aggressive than in 2024, with only one RRR cut of 50 basis points compared to two cuts totaling 100 basis points the previous year, and a single interest rate reduction of 10 basis points [6][7]. - Despite the lower intensity of easing, the effects of counter-cyclical adjustments are gradually becoming evident, with a net monetary injection of 591.6 billion yuan in the first eleven months of the year, compared to a net withdrawal of 3.09 trillion yuan in the same period last year [7]. Yield Trends and Financing Costs - The 10-year government bond yield has rebounded by 16 basis points despite the shift to a moderately loose monetary policy, primarily due to the market's previous overreaction to anticipated easing [8]. - However, the overall financing costs have decreased, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates dropping by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [8]. Policy Coordination - The emphasis on enhancing policy "coordination" reflects a shift towards integrating various economic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, to foster a consumption-driven economic growth model [9][10]. - The central economic work conference has highlighted the need for consistency in macroeconomic policy orientation, ensuring that both existing and new policies work together to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [10]. Future Monetary Policy Directions - The central economic work conference and the central bank's quarterly meeting have called for increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, balancing short-term and long-term economic needs [11][12]. - The focus for 2026 will include structural support, risk prevention, and the establishment of a robust monetary policy framework, alongside measures to enhance financial market stability and manage systemic risks [14][15].