KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-15 10:24Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai is accelerating its pricing, channel, and direct sales reforms, indicating a clearer market-oriented pricing system, which Goldman Sachs interprets as a signal that the liquor industry is bottoming out [1]. Group 1: Pricing and Sales Adjustments - On January 1, Kweichow Moutai announced adjustments to the suggested retail prices of key products in its non-standard Moutai series, aligning factory prices based on channel research [1]. - The iMoutai platform launched the Feitian Moutai series on January 1, with suggested retail prices set at 1499 RMB per bottle for various product sizes [1]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that iMoutai could contribute approximately 4.5 billion RMB in total sales within the first nine days of 2026, representing about 35% of iMoutai's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 [5]. Group 2: Wholesale Price Trends - Recent trends show a divergence in wholesale prices, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai decreasing by 40 RMB per bottle, while other products like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 remain stable [6]. - The wholesale prices for other Moutai products have varied, with some increasing while others, such as the boutique Moutai and Moutai 15 years, have seen price reductions [7][8]. Group 3: Market Demand and Recovery - High-end liquor retail demand remains weak year-on-year, with current terminal sales at 50%-70% of previous levels, indicating a need for time to recover [1][9]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a potential bottoming opportunity for the liquor industry in the second half of 2026, driven by a recovery in high-end banquet and business demand from a low base in June 2025 [9]. - The pricing reforms by Moutai are expected to have a demonstration effect on the entire liquor industry, promoting normalization of channel pricing and profit levels, while also accelerating inventory reduction processes [9].