受生猪市场价格波动影响，牧原股份预计2025年净利润同比下降14.93%–20.21%

Core Viewpoint - The leading Chinese pig farming company, Muyuan Foods, anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to a substantial drop in pig sales prices year-on-year, despite achieving some success in controlling production costs [1] Financial Performance Summary - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 15.1 billion to 16.1 billion RMB, indicating a decrease of 14.93% to 20.21% compared to the previous year's net profit of 18.925 billion RMB [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% [2] - The basic earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted to be between 2.73 RMB to 2.93 RMB, lower than the previous year's figure of 3.3 RMB [2] Sales Price Impact - Despite challenges from a declining price cycle, Muyuan Foods has indicated that it has strengthened health and production management for pigs in 2025, leading to improved production performance and a reduction in breeding costs compared to the previous year [3] - However, the optimization of costs has not fully offset the negative impact of falling sales prices, with the average sales price of pigs expected to be around 13.5 RMB per kilogram, a significant drop of approximately 17.3% from the previous year [3] Industry Risks - The board of Muyuan Foods has highlighted systemic risks facing the industry, particularly the significant impact of large fluctuations in pig market prices on operational performance [5] - The company emphasizes that price changes in the pig market represent a systemic risk for the entire pig production industry, which is an external risk that is objective and uncontrollable for any pig producer [5]