专访浙商宏观首席林成炜：2026年A股仍处于慢牛行情

Group 1 - The core view is that the trend of residents moving savings from deposits to diversified assets like equities, gold, and insurance will continue into 2026, supported by improved fundamentals and declining deposit rates [1][6] - A-shares are expected to experience a main upward trend driven by liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on technology growth sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [1][6] - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by two main factors: the ongoing devaluation of the dollar and the increasing demand for gold by central banks to mitigate risks [1][8] Group 2 - In 2026, the A-share market is anticipated to show a structural market characterized by low volatility dividends and technology growth, with key indices like the ChiNext and STAR Market expected to perform well [6] - The bond market is projected to experience a downward trend in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach around 1.5% [7] - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around 7, with a potential high of 6.8 in the first half of 2026 [7] Group 3 - The overall outlook for commodities is bullish on precious and non-ferrous metals while bearish on crude oil, with a target price of $50 per barrel for WTI crude [9] - The 2026 GDP growth target is set at around 4.8%, with industrial growth policies expected to support this target [10][11] - The fiscal deficit is projected to be between 4.0% and 4.2%, with a total deficit scale of approximately 5.89 trillion to 6.19 trillion yuan [11] Group 4 - The expected new credit scale for 2026 is around 17.6 trillion yuan, with a year-end growth rate of 6.5%, while social financing is projected to increase by approximately 36.2 trillion yuan [16] - The real estate market is expected to maintain a strict control on new projects due to high inventory levels, with potential policy adjustments in major cities [18] - Key investment opportunities in 2026 are anticipated in technology and green industries, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [19][20]