空客：2044年中国将成全球航空服务最大市场，达638亿美元

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that the aviation aftermarket service market is shifting towards China, which is projected to become the largest market by value, growing from $24.8 billion in 2025 to $63.8 billion by 2044 [1][8]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - China is expected to receive approximately 9,570 new aircraft over the next 20 years, doubling its fleet size to 10,620 aircraft by 2044, with over 90% being next-generation efficient aircraft [1][3]. - The domestic market is a major driver of growth, with passenger transport volume expected to increase by 17% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, and international routes recovering to over 90% of 2019 levels [3]. Group 2: Key Segments Driving Growth - The largest segment in the aftermarket service market is non-wing maintenance and repair, projected to grow from $17 billion in 2025 to $44.8 billion by 2044, driven by increased engine maintenance needs as the fleet ages [3][4]. - Daily maintenance services are expected to double from $3 billion in 2025 to $6.8 billion by 2044, while modification and upgrade services will grow from $1.8 billion to $3.1 billion in the same period [3]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Workforce Needs - The fastest-growing segment is the digital and connected market, expected to rise from $1.4 billion in 2025 to $5.1 billion by 2044, encompassing predictive maintenance and seamless passenger experiences [4]. - The aviation industry in China will require over 485,000 new technical personnel by 2044, including 131,000 pilots, 143,000 maintenance technicians, and 211,000 cabin crew [4]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency and Cost Savings - Chinese airlines are accelerating digital transformation, with over 9,000 aircraft expected to have onboard connectivity, leading to operational cost savings of over $2.2 billion and additional fuel cost savings of $5.7 billion [6]. - The latest GSF report indicates a slight adjustment in fleet size projections, with a decrease of 540 aircraft from the previous estimate, attributed to a change in statistical criteria that now excludes cargo aircraft [6]. Group 5: Global Market Share - Currently, China's aviation service market accounts for only 15.59% of the global market, but it is projected to rise to 20.5% by 2044, surpassing Europe, the CIS, and North America [8]. - 17% of the global aviation service market growth over the next 20 years is expected to come from China [8].