BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Qi Huo Ri Bao·2026-01-15 23:47Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2026, new production capacity will largely have supporting downstream projects, leading to a slowdown in domestic production pressure. Seasonal maintenance will impact operating rates and output [1][18] - The demand for methanol will see significant growth from external purchases of methanol-to-olefins (MTO) units, with traditional downstream new capacity providing a certain demand increment for methanol [1][18] - The overall supply-demand balance for methanol may improve to some extent in 2026, despite facing import pressures in the second half of the year [1][18] Production Capacity Growth - As of November 2025, domestic methanol production capacity reached 108.045 million tons, an increase of approximately 5.18 million tons from the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [2] - Integrated projects are the main contributors to new capacity, with about 70% of the new capacity in 2025 being integrated projects supporting downstream applications like MTO and BDO [2] - The dominance of coal-based methanol production is expected to strengthen, with coal-based capacity projected to reach 85.97 million tons by 2025, accounting for 81.8% of total capacity [2] Production Trends - Methanol production in 2025 is expected to reach 101.83 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [6] - The average operating rate for coal-based methanol units is around 80%, showing a gradual increase, while natural gas-based units remain stable at approximately 49% [7] - The overall operating rate for the methanol industry was 85.74% as of November 2025, an increase of 2.10 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [7] Import Market Dynamics - China's methanol import market experienced a "V" shaped trend in 2025, with total imports expected to reach 14.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [8] - The growth in imports is influenced by multiple factors, including overseas supply and international logistics [8] - In 2026, methanol imports from Iran are expected to increase, while imports from Russia may also rise due to geopolitical factors [9] Downstream Demand - In 2025, the average weighted operating rate for downstream methanol industries was approximately 76%, a 3 percentage point increase from 2024 [10] - The methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector remains the primary downstream consumer, accounting for about 50% of methanol demand [10] - The MTO industry is projected to continue its rapid growth in 2026, with an expected annual increase in capacity of 320,000 tons [12] Price Trends - Methanol prices are expected to exhibit seasonal fluctuations in 2026, with potential price recovery in the first half of the year due to lower import pressures, followed by a possible decline in the second half [1][18] - The overall price trend for 2026 is anticipated to show a stronger performance in the first half and a weaker performance in the second half, influenced by seasonal maintenance and import dynamics [18]