ASML Holding(US:ASML) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-16 08:25Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley states that ASML is at the beginning of its strongest profit cycle ever, driven by the AI wave pushing advanced process and memory chip capacity expansion, with 2027 expected to be a peak year for profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Projections - ASML's sales for the fiscal year 2027 are projected to reach approximately €46.8 billion, with EBIT expected to hit €19.7 billion and a gross margin increase to 56.2% [1][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2027 is €45.74, a 35% increase from the previous estimate of €33.94, and a 57% year-over-year growth compared to the anticipated €29.12 for 2026 [1][15]. - Morgan Stanley has raised ASML's target price from €1,000 to €1,400, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and "Top Pick" status [3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The profit surge is primarily driven by strong demand from advanced logic foundries, significant capacity expansion in the DRAM memory sector, and better-than-expected demand performance [3][13]. - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $52-56 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase, with 70-80% allocated to advanced processes, which is a key catalyst for ASML [5]. - TSMC's EUV tool procurement expectations for 2026 have been raised from approximately 20 to 29 units, and for 2027 from 28 to 40 units [5][7]. Group 3: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM market is experiencing unprecedented demand, with strong price momentum driven by regular server CPU demand and large cloud service providers' AI needs for 2026-27 [8][10]. - The scarcity of capacity has led to record price increases for HBM and general DRAM, which is expected to last for at least 1-2 quarters, prompting large-scale capacity construction in the DRAM manufacturing sector [10][11]. Group 4: Upcoming Financial Results - ASML is set to release its Q4 financial results on January 28, 2026, with expected orders of €7.27 billion, significantly higher than €5.4 billion in Q3, including 19 EUV low-NA tools [14]. - The anticipated sales for Q4 are €9.675 billion, at the high end of the guidance range, with a year-over-year growth of 4% [14]. - The gross margin for Q4 is expected to be 51.8%, close to the guidance midpoint, with a sequential increase of 20 basis points [14].