TSMC(US:TSM) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-16 08:25Core Viewpoint - TSMC is significantly accelerating its expansion plans in the United States, driven by strong confidence in the growing demand for AI chips, with a total investment of $165 billion in the U.S. and a record capital expenditure plan for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion Plans - TSMC has purchased an additional 900 acres of land in Arizona to support its upgraded expansion plans, as the original 1,100 acres was insufficient for the construction of six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research center [1][2]. - The new land acquisition provides the physical foundation for TSMC's "super-sized fab cluster" in the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Financial Projections - TSMC's capital expenditure midpoint for 2026 is expected to grow by over 30% compared to 2025, reflecting the company's assessment of the sustainability of AI chip demand [2]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of nearly 30% in 2026, exceeding analyst expectations [1]. Group 3: Manufacturing Progress - TSMC's first U.S. factory has begun mass production, with performance exceeding expectations, achieving yield and technology levels comparable to its leading facilities in Taiwan [3]. - The timeline for the second Arizona factory has been advanced to the second half of 2027, and construction for the third factory will accelerate this year [3]. - TSMC has started the permitting process for a fourth factory, while the most advanced technologies will continue to be developed and scaled in Taiwan [3]. Group 4: Earnings Guidance - TSMC's first-quarter earnings guidance has surpassed market expectations, with projected revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, higher than the Bloomberg consensus of $33.22 billion [3]. - The company has provided gross margin and operating margin guidance of 63%-65% and 54%-56%, respectively, significantly above market estimates [3].