曾经遥遥领先的德国制造，为何骤然“跌落神坛”？

Group 1 - The core manufacturing industry in Germany is facing significant challenges, with a record number of bankruptcies expected in 2025, reaching 17,604 cases, the highest since 2005 [1][2] - Major companies, including Volkswagen, BMW, and Bosch, are experiencing factory closures and layoffs, with 471 companies with annual revenues exceeding €10 million filing for bankruptcy, a 25% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to Germany's GDP was 26.6% in 2021, but the industry is now under severe pressure from both internal and external factors, leading to a decline in production and profitability [2][3] Group 2 - Germany's reliance on imported energy, particularly natural gas, which accounts for about 25% of its primary energy consumption, is a critical vulnerability, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [4] - The manufacturing sector's dependence on exports, which constitute over one-third of GDP, has made it susceptible to trade protectionism and market fluctuations, leading to idle capacity and shrinking profits [4][5] - The automotive industry, a cornerstone of German manufacturing, is particularly affected, with a 27.4% drop in electric vehicle sales in 2024 and a projected decline in domestic production [14][16] Group 3 - The rise of Asian manufacturing, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and semiconductors, is encroaching on Germany's traditional manufacturing strengths, with significant market share losses reported [6][7][8] - Germany's manufacturing costs are significantly higher than those of competitors, with labor costs 22% above the average of 27 surveyed industrial countries, prompting companies to relocate production [11][12] - Foreign investments in Germany are crucial for revitalizing the manufacturing sector, with 1,724 foreign investment projects reported in 2024, particularly in electronics, energy, and logistics [25] Group 4 - The German defense industry is being viewed as a potential savior for the manufacturing sector, with increased defense spending expected to double demand in the sector [20][21] - Companies like Rheinmetall are successfully transitioning to defense, reporting significant profits compared to their automotive divisions [21] - However, this shift may lead to structural imbalances in the economy, as the defense sector's closed supply chains may not support the broader manufacturing ecosystem [24][26]