短期业绩承压不改长期向好，解码广西能源的价值底色与成长机遇

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Energy is expected to face significant external challenges in 2025, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -170 million to -220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 369.89% to 449.27% [1] Group 1: Performance Challenges - The performance pressure in 2025 is attributed to multiple short-term external factors rather than a fundamental issue with the company's core operational capabilities [2] - Key short-term factors include adverse natural conditions leading to reduced hydropower generation and increased costs due to market rules affecting electricity pricing, which have negatively impacted revenue [2] - The decrease in hydropower generation has also resulted in higher electricity purchases, further squeezing profit margins in the supply segment [2] Group 2: Long-term Value and Support - Despite short-term fluctuations, Guangxi Energy's core investment value and competitive advantages remain intact, supported by regional energy strategies [3] - The "14th Five-Year" energy plan in Guangxi aims to increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption to over 35% by 2030, positioning Guangxi Energy to benefit from this policy [3] - The company has established a diversified energy business system, with a total installed capacity of 2.3571 million kilowatts as of September 2025, a 169% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year" period, and approximately 70% of this capacity is from clean energy sources [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The gradual commissioning of new energy projects is expected to provide ongoing growth momentum, with the first offshore wind project contributing significant electricity generation and profits [4] - The company has made progress in various renewable energy projects, including onshore wind and solar, with a total installed capacity of 550,000 kilowatts for onshore wind [4] - The electricity grid construction has improved, with a total line length of 7,720 kilometers, an 18.5% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year" period, enhancing service to nearly 400,000 users [4] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Guangxi Energy's strategic planning aligns with the "14th Five-Year" energy development blueprint, presenting vast opportunities for growth [5] - The company aims to optimize its energy structure and increase the share of non-fossil energy, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [5] - Guangxi's position as an energy cooperation hub with ASEAN countries offers potential for cross-border electricity trading and expansion into overseas markets [5][6]